Tag: opinion polling
-
Could Conservative “Don’t Knows” be causing the next big polling error?
YouGov has released its first UK-wide MRP since the 2019 election. Like all UK polls in the past two years, it shows a substantial Labour victory. However, with YouGov’s strong track record of UK MRP, the results have created a splash with politicos. While most commentators focussed on the magnitude of Labour’s victory (a 120…
-
Why mid-term MRPs might be understating the Liberal Democrats
Recent polls have shown the Liberal Democrats struggling to increase their vote share nationwide, lagging behind their 2019 result. The hope for Lib Dems is that a falling tide drops (sinks?) all boats, with Lib Dem candidates winning where the Tory vote collapses, even without being the direct beneficiaries. Projections using Uniform Swing and Multilevel…
-
2021 Metro Mayor Elections: Labour narrowly gained from the Conservatives while losing to “Did Not Vote”
The eight Combined Authority (“Metro”) Mayor elections in May 2021 were some of Labour’s most successful of the cycle. Despite poor results elsewhere, Labour managed to pick up two mayoralties directly from the Conservatives (West of England and Cambridgeshire) and a third newly created position (West Yorkshire). The gains ended up being overshadowed, partly because…
-
What’s up with the Sunday Times MRP projection?
All over Twitter today has been discussion of a Sunday Times MRP model which reportedly showed that if an election were held today, Boris Johnson would lose his majority and his seat. It’s a striking result but not totally inconsistent with recent national polls which have shown Labour making gains. It caught my attention, though,…
-
Uniform swing outperformed state polls for the first time in US polling history in 2020
The 2020 election had a huge focus on state polls – far more so than in 2016, when more national polls were commissioned and discussed. This makes sense given the distorting effect of the electoral college. The renewed focus was supposed to ensure another upset would not happen again, with higher quality polls in swing…
Owen Winter 