• Do Virginia and New Jersey tell us anything about the mid-terms?

    Do Virginia and New Jersey tell us anything about the mid-terms?

    Democrats had a staggeringly positive set of elections on Tuesday 4th November. Zohran Mamdani dominated headlines, defeating former governor Andrew Cuomo to become the New York’s first Muslim mayor and one of the most senior democratic socialists in America. But Dems also dominated elsewhere—in governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia (as well as those…

  • Who voted for Zohran Mamdani?

    Who voted for Zohran Mamdani?

    Zohram Mamdani’s triumph over Andrew Cuomo in the New York City Democratic primary signals a shift towards the progressive wing of the party. Mamdani excelled among younger, Hispanic, and Asian voters, while struggling with older Black voters.

  • Could Conservative “Don’t Knows” be causing the next big polling error?

    Could Conservative “Don’t Knows” be causing the next big polling error?

    YouGov has released its first UK-wide MRP since the 2019 election. Like all UK polls in the past two years, it shows a substantial Labour victory. However, with YouGov’s strong track record of UK MRP, the results have created a splash with politicos. While most commentators focussed on the magnitude of Labour’s victory (a 120…

  • Is Cornwall politically distinct? Public opinion across Dowr Tamar

    Is Cornwall politically distinct? Public opinion across Dowr Tamar

    The 2021 Census showed a substantial increase in the number of people who identified as “Cornish” as their national identity. Despite no tick-box option, over 100,000 people in England and Wales wrote Cornish into the national identity question. The data comes seven years after Cornish was recognised as a national minority by the Council of…

  • Why mid-term MRPs might be understating the Liberal Democrats

    Why mid-term MRPs might be understating the Liberal Democrats

    Recent polls have shown the Liberal Democrats struggling to increase their vote share nationwide, lagging behind their 2019 result. The hope for Lib Dems is that a falling tide drops (sinks?) all boats, with Lib Dem candidates winning where the Tory vote collapses, even without being the direct beneficiaries. Projections using Uniform Swing and Multilevel…

  • MRes Dissertation: Quantifying substantive representation of ethnic minorities

    MRes Dissertation: Quantifying substantive representation of ethnic minorities

    In August I completed my dissertation for the Master of Research in Advanced Quantitative Methods at the University of Bristol. Quantifying substantive representation of ethnic minorities in the House of Commons, 2010-2020 Geography and substantive representation of ethnic minorities under single-member plurality electoral rules Under single-member district electoral systems, geography is paramount. This is particularly…

  • Convergence between parties and Brexit vote happens in both directions

    Convergence between parties and Brexit vote happens in both directions

    Since 2016, EU Referendum vote has been highly predictive of voting behaviour. It is well established that the Conservatives won many leave-voting Labour supporters at the 2019 election, helping to secure a huge majority. Meanwhile, Labour and the Liberal Democrats fared comparatively better in Remain-voting areas. Generally, this discussion focusses on partisan defections ’caused by’…

  • Britain is becoming more liberal on immigration, but sceptics still outweigh enthusiasts

    Britain is becoming more liberal on immigration, but sceptics still outweigh enthusiasts

    Suella Braverman‘s recent resignation and reappointment has exposed the divides within the Conservative Party over immigration. Some, including former Prime Minister Liz Truss, believe growth should be prioritised over reducing immigration. Others, including Braverman, believe reducing immigration should be a top priority. This debate is often framed around public opinion. How much immigration are voters…

  • Projecting results under the new Welsh constituency boundaries

    Projecting results under the new Welsh constituency boundaries

    Today, the Boundary Commission for Wales published its revised proposals for the 2023 Parliamentary Review. This includes 32 constituencies to replace the current 40. Here, I use demographic data to project the 2019 election results under the new boundaries. In 2019, Labour won 22 MPs, the Conservatives 14 and Plaid Cymru 4. The new boundaries…

  • The pro-PR motion passed by Labour Party Conference 2022

    The pro-PR motion passed by Labour Party Conference 2022

    Last week, Labour Party conference made history by overwhelmingly voting for a pro-PR motion, organised by Labour for a New Democracy. This is a huge moment for the reform campaign. I wanted to record the full text of the motion here, because I have not seen it published elsewhere.