Tag: Liberal Democrats

  • Is Cornwall politically distinct? Public opinion across Dowr Tamar

    Is Cornwall politically distinct? Public opinion across Dowr Tamar

    The 2021 Census showed a substantial increase in the number of people who identified as “Cornish” as their national identity. Despite no tick-box option, over 100,000 people in England and Wales wrote Cornish into the national identity question. The data comes seven years after Cornish was recognised as a national minority by the Council of…

  • Why mid-term MRPs might be understating the Liberal Democrats

    Why mid-term MRPs might be understating the Liberal Democrats

    Recent polls have shown the Liberal Democrats struggling to increase their vote share nationwide, lagging behind their 2019 result. The hope for Lib Dems is that a falling tide drops (sinks?) all boats, with Lib Dem candidates winning where the Tory vote collapses, even without being the direct beneficiaries. Projections using Uniform Swing and Multilevel…

  • What effect did progressive cooperation have on the 2022 English local elections?

    What effect did progressive cooperation have on the 2022 English local elections?

    This research was originally posted as an LSE Politics and Policy blog post, here. Across England, hundreds of wards in the local elections had only one ‘progressive’ candidate (Labour, Liberal Democrat or Green). I have tried to estimate the effect that this had on their vote shares, using a technique called “Coarsened Exact Matching” (CEM).…

  • What if UK European Elections were held under the 1994 FPTP system?

    What if UK European Elections were held under the 1994 FPTP system?

    The European Elections are the only nationwide UK elections held under a form of Proportional Representation. Admittedly, due to the D’Hondt counting system and small regions, the system isn’t perfectly proportional, but it is a vast improvement on the previous FPTP system, used until 1999. The last European Election to be held under First Past…