Tag: Conservative

  • Could Conservative “Don’t Knows” be causing the next big polling error?

    Could Conservative “Don’t Knows” be causing the next big polling error?

    YouGov has released its first UK-wide MRP since the 2019 election. Like all UK polls in the past two years, it shows a substantial Labour victory. However, with YouGov’s strong track record of UK MRP, the results have created a splash with politicos. While most commentators focussed on the magnitude of Labour’s victory (a 120…

  • Why mid-term MRPs might be understating the Liberal Democrats

    Why mid-term MRPs might be understating the Liberal Democrats

    Recent polls have shown the Liberal Democrats struggling to increase their vote share nationwide, lagging behind their 2019 result. The hope for Lib Dems is that a falling tide drops (sinks?) all boats, with Lib Dem candidates winning where the Tory vote collapses, even without being the direct beneficiaries. Projections using Uniform Swing and Multilevel…

  • Convergence between parties and Brexit vote happens in both directions

    Convergence between parties and Brexit vote happens in both directions

    Since 2016, EU Referendum vote has been highly predictive of voting behaviour. It is well established that the Conservatives won many leave-voting Labour supporters at the 2019 election, helping to secure a huge majority. Meanwhile, Labour and the Liberal Democrats fared comparatively better in Remain-voting areas. Generally, this discussion focusses on partisan defections ’caused by’…

  • Projecting results under the new Welsh constituency boundaries

    Projecting results under the new Welsh constituency boundaries

    Today, the Boundary Commission for Wales published its revised proposals for the 2023 Parliamentary Review. This includes 32 constituencies to replace the current 40. Here, I use demographic data to project the 2019 election results under the new boundaries. In 2019, Labour won 22 MPs, the Conservatives 14 and Plaid Cymru 4. The new boundaries…

  • New York Times – U.K. Voters’ Frustration High as 99% Are Sidelined in Prime Minister Election

    New York Times – U.K. Voters’ Frustration High as 99% Are Sidelined in Prime Minister Election

    My quote from this piece in the New York Times, about the Conservative leadership contest and dissatisfaction with politics. Most galling for many is that the decision lies with the Tories, whose party members are determined to have Brexit delivered by Oct. 31 at any cost. That view has been rejected by the majority of…

  • What if UK European Elections were held under the 1994 FPTP system?

    What if UK European Elections were held under the 1994 FPTP system?

    The European Elections are the only nationwide UK elections held under a form of Proportional Representation. Admittedly, due to the D’Hondt counting system and small regions, the system isn’t perfectly proportional, but it is a vast improvement on the previous FPTP system, used until 1999. The last European Election to be held under First Past…

  • Tactical voting on the basis of the 2014 European Elections

    Tactical voting on the basis of the 2014 European Elections

    Disclaimer: I am a Labour Party member and will be voting for Labour in May’s European Elections. This blog is not intended to encourage tactical voting but to explore from an academic perspective whether various parties’ claims to be “the main Remain party” in the upcoming European Elections stand up to scrutiny. One of the biggest…

  • How Labour Can Seize The Initiative From The Independent Group

    How Labour Can Seize The Initiative From The Independent Group

    This was originally posted as a HuffPost article: How Labour Can Seize The Initiative From The Independent Group As of Thursday at 4pm, eleven MPs – eight Labour and three Conservative – had left their respective parties to join ‘The Independent Group’, sparking a political crisis for both main parties. I say sparking, but in…