Tag: public opinion
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Is Cornwall politically distinct? Public opinion across Dowr Tamar
The 2021 Census showed a substantial increase in the number of people who identified as “Cornish” as their national identity. Despite no tick-box option, over 100,000 people in England and Wales wrote Cornish into the national identity question. The data comes seven years after Cornish was recognised as a national minority by the Council of…
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Most of the “new PM polling bounce” occurs before they take office
There has been a lot of discussion lately about Liz Truss’s expected ‘poll bounce’. Pundits argue that new Prime Ministers get a boost in support from voters as they introduce themselves to the country and announce policies setting the tone of their leadership. I have used polling data from PollBasePro and Politico to consider what…
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People are surprisingly good at predicting local election results
I have previously looked at how British Election Study respondents view local crime rates (spoiler: people are very bad at judging local crime). But I had not realised there are also questions, last asked just before the 2019 election, asking respondents which party they thought would win locally. Being honest, I expected the predictions to…
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Classifying Parliamentary Constituencies by Petition Signatures
Parliament’s official petition website (petition.parliament.uk) has gained considerable traction in recent years, bringing attention to wide-ranging issues. From 2010 to 2015, the most popular petition on the website received 328,000 signatures, with 39 more receiving over 100,000 signatures. In the 2017-2019 parliament, by contrast, the most popular petition received over 6 million signatures while 75…
Owen Winter 