Tag: Conservatives
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Most of the “new PM polling bounce” occurs before they take office
There has been a lot of discussion lately about Liz Truss’s expected ‘poll bounce’. Pundits argue that new Prime Ministers get a boost in support from voters as they introduce themselves to the country and announce policies setting the tone of their leadership. I have used polling data from PollBasePro and Politico to consider what…
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What’s up with the Sunday Times MRP projection?
All over Twitter today has been discussion of a Sunday Times MRP model which reportedly showed that if an election were held today, Boris Johnson would lose his majority and his seat. It’s a striking result but not totally inconsistent with recent national polls which have shown Labour making gains. It caught my attention, though,…
Owen Winter 