Tag: British Election Study
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Is Cornwall politically distinct? Public opinion across Dowr Tamar
The 2021 Census showed a substantial increase in the number of people who identified as “Cornish” as their national identity. Despite no tick-box option, over 100,000 people in England and Wales wrote Cornish into the national identity question. The data comes seven years after Cornish was recognised as a national minority by the Council of…
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Britain is becoming more liberal on immigration, but sceptics still outweigh enthusiasts
Suella Braverman‘s recent resignation and reappointment has exposed the divides within the Conservative Party over immigration. Some, including former Prime Minister Liz Truss, believe growth should be prioritised over reducing immigration. Others, including Braverman, believe reducing immigration should be a top priority. This debate is often framed around public opinion. How much immigration are voters…
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People are surprisingly good at predicting local election results
I have previously looked at how British Election Study respondents view local crime rates (spoiler: people are very bad at judging local crime). But I had not realised there are also questions, last asked just before the 2019 election, asking respondents which party they thought would win locally. Being honest, I expected the predictions to…
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2021 Metro Mayor Elections: Labour narrowly gained from the Conservatives while losing to “Did Not Vote”
The eight Combined Authority (“Metro”) Mayor elections in May 2021 were some of Labour’s most successful of the cycle. Despite poor results elsewhere, Labour managed to pick up two mayoralties directly from the Conservatives (West of England and Cambridgeshire) and a third newly created position (West Yorkshire). The gains ended up being overshadowed, partly because…
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Shopping around: 70% expect to vote for more than one party in future
Before 2019, it was pretty common on social media to see the idea that in certain places – particularly in the north of England – Labour MPs could rely on voters to reelect them no matter what they or the party did. This was never really true (and it was often laced with classism) but…
Owen Winter 