Tag: Brexit
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Convergence between parties and Brexit vote happens in both directions
Since 2016, EU Referendum vote has been highly predictive of voting behaviour. It is well established that the Conservatives won many leave-voting Labour supporters at the 2019 election, helping to secure a huge majority. Meanwhile, Labour and the Liberal Democrats fared comparatively better in Remain-voting areas. Generally, this discussion focusses on partisan defections ’caused by’…
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Transnational social connectedness and the 2016 referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union
This paper was produced for the Supervised Individual Study unit of the Advanced Quantitative Methods MRes at the University of Bristol. A PDF of the paper is available here, replication code and data here.
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What if UK European Elections were held under the 1994 FPTP system?
The European Elections are the only nationwide UK elections held under a form of Proportional Representation. Admittedly, due to the D’Hondt counting system and small regions, the system isn’t perfectly proportional, but it is a vast improvement on the previous FPTP system, used until 1999. The last European Election to be held under First Past…
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Tactical voting on the basis of the 2014 European Elections
Disclaimer: I am a Labour Party member and will be voting for Labour in May’s European Elections. This blog is not intended to encourage tactical voting but to explore from an academic perspective whether various parties’ claims to be “the main Remain party” in the upcoming European Elections stand up to scrutiny. One of the biggest…
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Labour Should Put Post-16 Education at the Heart of its National Education Service
This article was originally published in Look Left – Oxford University Labour Club‘s termly journal. Education funding has been a hot political issue in recent years, with schools facing a funding crisis and controversial tuition fees being introduced in higher education. Until recently, however, further education has been largely missing from the conversation. Despite bearing…
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Greens for a Better Europe – Book
I’m really excited to see the launch of Greens for a Better Europe – Twenty Years of UK Green Influence in the European Parliament, a book which I contributed a chapter to, co-authored by Klina Jordan. The book will be available from early March. Until then, here is the abstract of mine and Klina’s chapter.…
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How Labour Can Seize The Initiative From The Independent Group
This was originally posted as a HuffPost article: How Labour Can Seize The Initiative From The Independent Group As of Thursday at 4pm, eleven MPs – eight Labour and three Conservative – had left their respective parties to join ‘The Independent Group’, sparking a political crisis for both main parties. I say sparking, but in…
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Greens overtake AfD in Germany: why does the British media report European elections so badly?
A poll of German voters has shown Die Grünen ahead of far right Alternative für Deutschland. The poll shows Merkel’s CDU ahead on 31% followed by the SPD on 17%, the Greens are in 3rd at 15%, narrowly overtaking AfF on 14% who are trailed by Die Linke and the FDP on 10 and 8%.…
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A Reluctant Case For A People’s Vote
This was originally posted as a HuffPost article: A Reluctant Case for a People’s Vote As Theresa May negotiates our exit of the European Union, her government lurches from crisis to crisis. Whichever path she takes, the Prime Minister can expect a rebellion from at least one side of her party. And with an opportunistic…
Owen Winter 